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Old 11-Jan-17, 01:44
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Default Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

Given the small amount of shine on each woman, this is hardly a marquee matchup, but among people who enjoy or follow women's MMA, the fight scheduled for 28 JAN 00017 is sort of a big deal. And even if you're just a resumé or "on paper" freak, it's got to have some amount of intrigue, given that this is a fight between the woman who beat the woman who beat the woman vs the woman who beat the woman who beat the OTHER woman. Or is that simply "woman", not "other woman"? Or should I just called them all "girls" instead, because had they all been male, I would've called each "guy" instead of "man". I digress.

Valentina Shevchenko dismantled Holly Holm who beat up and knocked out Ronda Rousey

Julianna Peña beat Cat Zingano who beat up Amanda Nunes, oh, who also beat up Ronda Rousey

So, this actually is a fight between the woman who beat the woman who beat the woman vs the woman who beat the woman who beat the OTHER woman who beat the woman. Ok, there, now you can check the math.

I watched some video of Peña and she can throw a pretty strong punch. Right now, I'm leaning Shevchenko because of what she did to Holly (see what I did there?), but it's possible that Julianna may be able to get in on Valentina and use her bigger body to apply pressure. Meanwhile, I expect Valentina to try to execute the same clinical display she used to taken down Holly.
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Old 11-Jan-17, 02:18
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

This fight is, in all likelihood, a title-contender matchup, so yeah, it's a pretty big deal. As for the "shine", we may have to get used to the idea that no other woman in the UFC is going to be able to make the kind of inroads into mainstream media that Rousey did.
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Old 11-Jan-17, 02:21
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

MMA math is a myth.

It's an important fight, because the winner will most probably get a title shot.

I think this one is a classic striker vs grappler match. If Shevchenko can keep it standing and lits Pena up early, she will take it. If Pena can get it to the ground, Shevchenko will be in trouble.
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Old 11-Jan-17, 02:40
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

I'm leaning towards Pena.

Wouldn't be surprised if this fight looked a lot like the Pena/Eye fight.

As you say, Valentina is small for the division (a natural Flyweight) and I think her UFC wins were favourable match ups for her. This is a completely different proposition than fighting Holly. Julianna will not be looking to Box and dance around leaving herself open for counters all night long. For Valentina to win her take down defense needs to be on point and ideally she needs to land something devastating and knock Julianna out, but I think she'll struggle to do that. If she can keep it standing she can win rounds but again I think that will be a tall order.

Julianna's striking will need to be tight and she'll be looking to get the fight to the ground ASAP. She is good at utilizing trips from the clinch but can also level change and shoot. From there she will likely dominate and win rounds. She might force a stoppage if she can get to the full mount. She also has good Jits and may be able to win via submission.

Last edited by jiminy; 11-Jan-17 at 02:56.
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Old 11-Jan-17, 04:00
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

Shevchenko talks about Nunes

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Old 11-Jan-17, 05:32
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

Pena talks about Shevchenko, Rousey, Nunes ...and herself.

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Old 12-Jan-17, 02:30
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

I love Julianna's attitude. If she demonstrates that she can absorb some shots in their fight - don't think for a moment that Valenina won't hit her at all - then I expect the respect meter to climb quite a bit, regardless of the outcome.

In her clip, I like the way Valentina talks about how she does not think about how hard she just got hit, but instead focuses her energy on "giving" (damage). This lines up perfectly with what my fiancée said to me months ago: "in boxing, the best defense is the attack."
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Old 21-Jan-17, 23:56
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

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Old 22-Jan-17, 07:15
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

The odds are out now and it's a complete toss-up. Shevchenko is 10/11 (or -110) and Peña is even money (or +100). Any advice?

I'd be thinking Shevchenko. She seems more proven with all her kick-boxing and muay thai world championships.

And if you scratch Peña's win over Zingana, where Zingano was coming off a 16-17 month lay-off, Peña's record looks very average.

Plus to me Julianna is sexier - looks-wise and fight-style-wise so seeing Julianna choke out Shevchenko would be some consolation.

However, I seem to call every fight wrong, e.g. I fancied Chael Sonnen last night.
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Old 22-Jan-17, 08:10
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Default Re: Shevchenko-Peña (no odds available yet)

In the last 48 hours, the money has begun moving toward Shevchenko. BetDSI had both at -107 a few hours ago (-108/-112 now), the cheapest out there, while Bovada is at -115 on both.

I spent a couple hours trying to develop a book on Peña, but I'm not sure how legitimately heavy those hands are. Meanwhile, I KNOW what an effective counter-striker Shevchenko is. I expect Valentina to have the better game plan going in - that is, I expect her to have the more patient plan - and could easily see this as a fight where she keeps it standing up where she can outscore Julianna.

I do love Valentina, but there's a significant part of me that wants to see Julianna hit her HARD.....just so that I can see for sure exactly how hard Julianna hits.
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