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Old 06-Apr-20, 03:22
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KillerCrushes KillerCrushes is offline
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Default The Corona market is real

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dustybottums [Only Registered Users Can See LinksClick Here To Register]
Give me some hints, KC! I'm getting hammered right now.

Hang in there, stay safe.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional. We all invest differently and with different goals. All trading/investing involves risk. Be sure to do your own due diligence before making any securities purchase.

When all the restaurants crashed a couple weeks ago, I went crazy with BJ's, Red Robin, Cheesecake Factory, Denny's, and one of my partners suggested Carnival. A week later, every one except Cheesecake was trading at 2x and that was an easy departure point. I held onto Cheesecake and some Denny's, but dumped the others. They're all value-priced right now, but as a company, I'm wary of Red Robin. I think BJ's and Denny's road nicely within 2 years. I expect Carnival to go lower.

I predict oil is making another move early Monday, but I cannot predict which way it will go. At the moment, people are literally waiting to see what the U.S. president may tweet about SA/Russia before the market opens. At the moment (noon eastern time on Sunday), you have one group predicting it's going to crash - keep in mind, we're already really low - and on the other side, speculators are saying that the U.S. president has, in fact, struck a deal with Russia to scale back production, which should stabilize the market.

I made a speculative move premarket Friday on UCO and then bought more on the way up. Because of the extremely low entry point, I can either hedge or hold tomorrow. If looking to go long, you should safely expect to 4x your investment within 18-24 months if you choose to buy in tomorrow. If you don't like the volatility of oil futures, you can also look at oil *storage*...particularly tanker companies. I don't have any exact recommendations there, though.

I jumped on Boeing a couple weeks ago right at $100 and it quickly soared up to $180 a week later. I told everyone else to dump it, but I held it myself because it was "something I always wanted, but could never afford". lol I try to make money whenever I can, but I'd be lying if I did not admit that roughly 10% of my holdings are emotional plays. If Boeing comes back down to $100 (which is looking very possible), that's another definite buy for me, but I like it at $125, too.

IMO, Starbucks is on sale right now. That's a very easy call to make for your long-term folio. Even though they gave most of their workforce 30 days' paid leave, they're a company that's perfectly built to weather this type of pandemic. There's nothing magical about this information - their dividend yield is over 2.5%, the company value continues to rise YOY. You know multiple people who drink Starbucks every single week, regardless of price.

On the controversial side, I like the airlines: American, Southwest, and Spirit. They're all budget-priced right now, but you've got to go in knowing that the industry is going to be hurting for the next year. If Delta hits $18, I'm in on them, too.

Another controversial one for speculators is LK. This one has caused so much chatter this weekend that I expect it to continue its rebound this coming week. After it crashed 75% early Thursday when a sales reporting scandal was revealed, I bought a bunch at $4.50/share. Two hours later, it hit $8/share. I sold on the way back down at around $7.50. So what? Well, after doing actual research, I decided to rebuy on Friday morning at an avg of $6.15 and watched it fall to $5.40 by the end of the day. And now I want more.

Why on earth would anyone buy into a company where you know there's fraud, which means bad leadership? Doesn't that violate a pretty major principle of the smart investor? Well, for me, it's quite simple: they have over 4000 stores, so the revenues are NOT $0. It's not a $20 stock, let alone $40, but even with the possible fraud, it is my opinion that this is easily a $12-15 stock before the end of Q3.

---
Update: Just listened to the WH press conference today and the U.S. president reiterated his belief that Russia and Saudi Arabia are close to announcing a deal. There are a bunch of people on the opposite side - look for the word "crater" in the coverage - saying there's no way Russia is cutting production by 40%. Unless something else happens overnight, it is my opinion that there will be early upward movement tomorrow.
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Last edited by KillerCrushes; 06-Apr-20 at 07:27.
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Old 07-Apr-20, 16:14
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Default Re: The Corona market is real

Update: Oil did race early, then dipped. I was in a sweet spot with UCO and pulled that early trigger.

LK - I did the whole thing wrong. I picked up great profit Thursday, and I was safely out. Then gave it all back. A lot of information has come out in the past 24 hours about rampant fraud, linking at least one of the company's directors to a previous scam in China for which he had done prison time. The original allegations were first published in late January (credit to Muddy Waters), however, a lot of the research firms dismissed the highly detailed, but anonymous report as non-credible.

Trading is currently suspended with a news report about to be released. There was apparently a major insider sale by Lone Pine Capital. They had a 14% stake of the ADRs and they sold the entire thing the day before the fraud story was released to the public.

The stores are still open and they're selling coffee, but all the news is bad. If they are bankrupted and picked up for pennies, the shares will become worthless.
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Old 07-Apr-20, 16:41
neely neely is offline
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Default Re: The Corona market is real

this has no place on this forum
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Old 07-Apr-20, 16:54
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Default Re: The Corona market is real

@[Only Registered Users Can See LinksClick Here To Register], this is the off-topic section. Anything that's not against the rules goes here.
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Old 23-Apr-20, 07:36
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Default Re: The Corona market is real

[QUOTE=The stores are still open and they're selling coffee, but all the news is bad. If they are bankrupted and picked up for pennies, the shares will become worthless.[/QUOTE]

Thanks! I love the intel. I'm not in the financial position to put a huge amount of cash in right now, but I have been putting everything I can spare in. I'm mostly long-term, as I have probably another almost 20 yrs before I retire.

Like you, I've been picking up things I've always wanted but couldn't afford, McDonalds, Caterpillar, stuff like that. I've also put some cash into Ford, GE, and a smattering of banking sector stuff - Citi, BoA, etc. I've always been a believer in Southern Company, you can't go wrong with utilities - I just wish they were more enviro-friendly. I think Kraft and Heinz are good long-haul bets, too. I like Hersheys too, but they're kinda high right now.

I picked up some AMC, they'll get saved. Carnival is interesting. I like Hilton, too. $70 when it was $115+ in January, and they have enough cash on hand to just sit closed for an estimated 24 months if need be.

Whenever I make a buy, I use the remainder to buy whatever oil I can. Ring, Marathon, it's crazy. Someday they'll be back, 2-3 years at the longest. It's literally money in the bank, and right now it's pennies. Crazy.

LK is interesting. Too bad is so stinky right now.

There's a little green company called PLAG that made me some money recently -- they're one to watch.

Thanks for the tips! Good luck, and stay healthy! -D
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Old 23-Apr-20, 11:07
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Default Re: The Corona market is real

How do you make a small fortune in the stock market?

ANSWER: Start out with a large fortune!!

Unfortunately, this attempt at humor describes what happens all too often. I learned a lot of hard lessons when I began investing in the early 1980's. My experience has been that bad things can happen really fast, while good things take a long time frame to materialize.
Stay humble, because a lot of what happens in financial markets is counter intuitive. You certainly won't be right anywhere near 100% of the time.

Like most long time investors, I am extremely risk averse; needless to say I hate losing money. Therefore, I confine myself to very large multinational corporations with a market capitalization of at least $50 billion , together with a dividend yield of around 5% . I insist on timing my buys when the qualifying stocks are close to a 52 week low. At the moment , I am focused on the mega cap energy producers and very large financial institutions.

As previously mentioned, there is no investment strategy which is optimal for all investors. Factors such as age , financial situation , and risk appetite should all play a role when deciding upon how to invest in the stock market.
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Old 03-May-20, 18:43
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Default Re: The Corona market is real

It's unbelievable that the markets are still holding up.
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